Gaming
Entertainment
Music
Sports
Business
Technology
News
Design
Fitness
Science
Histoy
Travel
Animals
DIY
Fun
Style
Photography
Lifestyle
Food
2018-04-26T07:55:59.434Z
0
{"feed":"Grasping-Reality-with-Both-Hands-bradford-delongcom","feedTitle":"bradford-delong.com","feedLink":"/feed/Grasping-Reality-with-Both-Hands-bradford-delongcom","catTitle":"Business","catLink":"/cat/bussiness"}
http://delong.typepad.com/2018-04-25-problem-set-v-113-s2018.pdf Two-sentence IDs: what is it, and why does it feature in American economic history? (exam will offer you a choice to do 10 out of 15): Caravel Cuzco DARPA Free Silver Woodrow Wilson Lowell, MA Potosi Sherman Act Smallpox Triangle trade   One-paragraph short answers: What is this concept or idea and why is it an important aspect of American economic history? (exam will offer you a choice to do 4 of 6): Why is the transistor an important technology for American economic history? What was the Missouri Compromise? Did it play an important role in American economic history? If so, what was its role? If not, why not? What role has Eli Whitney’s idea of “interchangeable parts” played in American economic history? In what ways might American economic history have been different if Native Americans had been exposed to smallpox before 1492?   Brief essay (exam will offer you a choice of 1 of 2): Suppose that you had learned this morning that one of your housemates is enrolled in Economics 113 but has never been to a single lecture or read a single reading. What would you have told them about American economic history this morning to give them the best chance of not failing this exam?   Calculations: In 1945 manufacturing employed 30% of American workers and manufacturing products amounted to 40% of GDP. Since then the productivity of manufacturing workers has increased 1% per year faster than the average while the real share of output that is manufacturing has remained the same. If this productivity increase were the only important factor, what do you think...
Weekend Reading: Can somebody please tell me why Sam Harris was supposed to be interesting and smart?" Jeet Heer: "An addendum to the Ezra Klein and Sam Harris debate about Charles Murray. Harris uses Glenn Loury as a human shield, which is ironic given Loury's history with Murray... ...In his defense, Harris mentions he had the "fantastic" Loury "who happens to be black" on his show. Some of his best podcast guests are black! As it happens, Glenn Loury and Charles Murray have an interesting and salient history. They were colleagues together at American Enterprise Institute in the early 1990s. But after publication of Bell Curve and D'Souza's terrible End of Racism (also sponsored by AEI), Loury (and another black conservative, Robert Woodson) decided they could no longer work at AEI. Here is Loury's account of Bell Curve and larger hostility of American right to blacks, even black conservatives: So Loury, who Harris thinks is "fantastic" and (unlike Klein) a reasonable voice, thought that Murray's was so terrible that he couldn't in good conscience work with him. As another addendum: Sam Harris thinks Ezra Klein is "far left"—which brought me a rare laugh in a doleful world: #weekendreading
In Keynes’s General Theory the question of why “it seems unlikely that the influence of banking policy on the rate of interest will be sufficient by itself…” is left hanging. The question of how a “somewhat comprehensive socialization of investment“ is to be implemented is left hanging as well. There are remarkably a few references to “fiscal policy” in any form. So will somebody please explain to me why “fiscal policy” plays such a small part in the General Theory, while playing such a large part in mindshare perceptions of “Keynesianism”?... Keynes's General Theory Contains Oddly Few Mentions of "Fiscal Policy" Thx to Wavelength and the very interesting micro.blog http://delong.micro.blog/2018/04/21/keyness-general-theory.html Text: http://www.bradford-delong.com/2018/02/keyness-general-theory-contains.html
Weekend Reading: I would have said that the Dark Age is over. But the behavior of professional Republican economists formerly of note and reputation—and I am looking at you, Robert Barro, Harvey Rosen, Douglas Holtz-Eakin, Larry Lindsey, John Taylor, John Cochrane Glenn Hubbard, Michael Boskin, Charlie Calomiris, Jim Miller, Jagdish Bhagwati, and George Shultz: you know better. And, Marty Feldstein, you really should not have written your defense of Trump's China tariffs. The 2009-2014 Dark Age looks to me, mostly, like a deliberate decision to be stupid and not think issues through. This one looks like a last, vain attempt to gain some influence on Republican policy: Mark Thoma (2009): "A Dark Age of Macroeconomics": "Quoting an email [from Paul Krugman], economists who... ...have spent their entire careers on equilibrium business cycle theory are now discovering that, in effect, they invested their savings with Bernie Madoff... I think that's right, and as they come to this realization, we can expect these economists to flail about defending the indefensible, they will be quite vicious at times, and in their panic to defend the work they have spent their lives on, they may not be very careful about the arguments they make. I don't know if the defenders of the classical faith have come to this realization yet, at least beyond...
Weekend Reading: This still cuts me to the quick. I am not at all a depressive personality—but if I were, this would have me pulling an Oblomov every time I remember that I am part of a professional discipline that was, collectively, so useless in 2009-12, and that I used to praise the analytical acumen and tell people to listen to and take seriously so many of those who made us so useless: Paul Krugman (2012): Economics in the Crisis: "We’re now in the fourth year of a truly nightmarish economic crisis. I like to think that I was more prepared than most for the possibility that such a thing might happen; developments in Asia in the late 1990s badly shook my faith in the widely accepted proposition that events like those of the 1930s could never happen again. But even pessimists like me, even those who realized that the age of bank runs and liquidity traps was not yet over, failed to realize how bad a crisis was waiting to happen–and how grossly inadequate the policy response would be when it did happen... ...And the inadequacy of policy is something that should bother economists greatly—indeed, it should make them ashamed of their profession, which is certainly how I feel. For times of crisis are when economists are most needed. If they cannot get their advice accepted in the clinch—or, worse...
Ed Kilgore: Kevin Williamson Won’t Answer Questions About Abortion Punishment: "Conservative political writer Kevin Williamson... his recent dismissal by The Atlantic... column... mostly about the... 'Twitter mob' intimidating The Atlantic into un-hiring him... ...based on (he says) a deliberate misunderstanding of what he was trying to do in raising the issue of abortion sanctions.... In talking about “hanging” people he was engaging in a “provocation” designed to force a more honest discussion of abortion policy, not making a “public policy recommendation.”... Williamson... suggests the question of sanctions is not only legitimate but morally compelling: Let’s not equivocate: Abortion isn’t littering or securities fraud or driving 57 in a 55-mph zone. If it isn’t homicide, then it’s no more morally significant than getting a tooth pulled. If it isn’t homicide, then there’s no real argument for prohibiting it. If it is homicide, then we need to discuss more seriously what should be done to put an end to it... Williamson also complained that all sorts of people and periodicals who condemned his “provocative” remarks on abortion and “hanging” could have gone to the trouble of asking him what he thought: The remarkable fact about all this commentary on my supposedly horrifying views on abortion is that not a single writer from any of those famous publications took the time to ask me about the controversy. (The sole exception...
Alexandra Petri: It is too bad I have been silenced: "It is with a heavy heart, and profound regret for the current state of media in America, that I have dragged my laptop to a Starbucks to pen this column... ...But I think it is important that we understand the degree of oppression we are up against. I regret to say: I have been silenced. I expressed an opinion, and people criticized that opinion. And since that day, my voice has never been heard again. I am entombed where none can hear my jangling bells, for doing nothing more than walking down the street, saying that women who get abortions ought to be hanged. The mob has borne me aloft (metaphorically, of course) with their torches and—in their infantile gulosity—devoured everything I worked to build. My voice is trapped in a seashell in the grip of a NARAL-affiliated sea-witch, and I swim haplessly through the world, bipedal but voiceless. No. Voiceless is not the word I want. Sponsorless. Except for my ability to type and publish this now, the world has excommunicated me and barred me from public spheres, where I cannot exist in safety. I am like a mime (I once saw a mime on the streets of Chicago; I think this image speaks for itself). My life is (metaphorically!) over. These very words are invisible to you. Simply for having the temerity...
Weekend Reading: John Quiggin**: Hackery or heresy: "Henry’s recent post on the irrelevance of conservative intellectuals reminded me of this one from 2013, which concluded... ...Conservative reform of the Republican party is a project that has already failed. The only question is whether the remaining participants will choose hackery or heresy. Overwhelmingly, the choice has been hackery (or, a little more honorably, silence). The case for hackery is put most clearly by Henry Olsen. Starting from the evident fact that most Republican voters are white nationalists who don’t care about small government, Olsen considers the options available to small government conservatives. He rapidly dismisses the ideas of challenging Trump or forming a third party, and concludes that the only option is to capitulate. Strikingly, the option of withdrawing from party politics, and arguing for small government positions as an independent critic isn’t even considered. As Paul Krugman has observed recently, conservative economists (at least, those who comment publicly). are a striking example for the choice of hackery over heresy. Krugman, along with Brad DeLong, has been particularly critical of a group of economists (Robert Barro, Michael Boskin, John Cogan, Douglas Holtz-Eakin, Glenn Hubbard, Lawrence Lindsey, Harvey Rosen, George Shultz and John. Taylor) who’ve made dishonest arguments in favor of corporate tax cuts. Recently, an overlapping group (Boskin, John Cochrane, Cogan,...
Do your arithmetic, Sheeple! 1500 generations since radiation from the horn of Africa is really very little indeed... The “Let’s Be Agnostic About Race Science” Clowns Are In My Twitter Timeline Again Thx to Wavelength and the very interesting micro.blog http://help.micro.blog/2018/microcasting/ http://delong.micro.blog/2018/04/15/the-lets-be.html Text: http://www.bradford-delong.com/2018/03/the-lets-be-agnostic-about-race-science-clowns-are-in-my-twitter-timeline-again.html
Definitely Not My Morning Coffee: Ars Technica Live: Annalee Newitz and Brad DeLong: The Tech Boom and the Fate of Democracy "Ars Technica Live #21... Filmed by Chris Schodt, produced by Justin Wolfson... Annalee writes: "Last week, we had lots of questions about the fate of democracy in a world where the Internet feeds us propaganda faster than we can fact check it... ...Luckily, Ars Technica Live featured guest Bradford DeLong, an economist who has spent his career studying tech and industrial revolutions, as well as the connections between economics and democracy. So we had a lot to discuss, and the result is the longest Ars Technica Live episode ever. Brad worked in the US Treasury department during the Clinton administration, and he's a professor at UC Berkeley. So he's familiar with economic theory and history, as well as what happens when the rubber meets the road in trade agreements, regulations, and policy. First, we talked about what a "tech boom" is and how they happen. Brad took us on a trip back through history and explained how even the invention of horseback riding created social ruptures and job loss. He also explained that tech and industrial revolutions in the modern world are often correlated with new ways of communicating and publishing. So the Facebook scandal is, in a sense, nothing new. "Our brains and societies are being hacked in different ways," Brad said, but the pattern...
1e07f4c60c.mp3 Do We Really Care Whether Profits from American Slavery Were Reinvested to Spur Faster Economic Growth?: DeLong Morning Coffee Podcast: Whether American growth was much faster because of slavery is a third order issue in the history of slavery. Nevertheless, it is one I talk about because I know something about it. I think that the overwhelming beneficiaries from slavery were slaveowners and the consumers of slave-produced goods, not those of us further down the timeline who would have benefited from faster economic growth. 6f508a0c42 Thx to Wavelength and the very interesting micro.blog http://help.micro.blog/2018/microcasting/ http://delong.micro.blog/2018/04/15/do-we-really.html Text: http://www.bradford-delong.com/2018/03/do-we-really-care-whether-the-profits-from-american-slavery-were-reinvested-to-spur-faster-american-economic-growth-or-not.html
Economics Gone Wrong: I swing back and forth between simply thinking that: John Taylor has become unprofessional in writing things like Fed Policy Is a Drag on the Economy in which he claims that Federal Reserve quantitative easing is "imposing an interest-rate ceiling on the longer-term market by saying it will keep the short rate unusually low... much like... a price ceiling in a rental market where landlords reduce the supply of rental housing..." John Taylor is still very professional—but that he is not a professional economist but rather a professional Republican. Hoisted from the Archives (October 2015): Central Banks Are Not Agricultural Marketing Boards: Depression Economics, Inflation Economics and the Unsustainability of Friedmanism: Insofar as there is any thought behind the claims of John Taylor and others that the Federal Reserve is engaged in "price controls" via its monetary policy actions... Strike that. There is no thought at all behind such claims at all. Insofar as one did want to think, and so construct an argument that the Federal Reserve's monetary policy operations are destructive and in some ways analogous to "price controls", the argument would go something like this: The Federal Reserve's Open Market Committee's operations are like those of an agriculture marketing board—a government agency that sets the price for, say, some agricultural product like butter or milk. Some of what is offered for sale at that price that is not taken up by the private market, and...
2018-04-30: Allen Downey: Probably Overthinking It Think Stats Think Bayes Think Python Think Complexity http://www.bradford-delong.com/2018/04/2018-04-09-filed-allen-downey-probably-overthinking-it.html #webloggers #public_sphere #python #education Friedrich Hayek: Prices and Production http://delong.typepad.com/files/prices-and-production.pdf William Flesch: Amazon.com: Comeuppance: Costly Signaling, Altruistic Punishment, and Other Biological Components of Fiction (9780674032286): : Books 2017-08-07: Today's Book Haul: Blanchard: Macroeconomics Jones: Macroeconomics Robin: The Reactionary Mind Walter Jon Williams Quillifer http://amzn.to/2Aed3p2 Stephen Kotkin: Stalin: Waiting for Hitler, 1929-1941 http://amzn.to/2iXfM1V Alasdair Macintyre: A Short History of Ethics http://amzn.to/2AbZ9DR Stephen Kotkin: Magnetic Mountain: Stalinism as a Civilization http://amzn.to/2AdLTi7 Daniel Dennett: Consciousness Explained http://amzn.to/2zdM4vs Enrico Moretti: The New Geography of Jobs http://amzn.to/2xksRXM Charles Petzold: The Annotated Turing: A Guided Tour Through Alan Turing's Historic Paper on Computability and the Turing Machine http://amzn.to/2vYkkXk Robert H. Bates: The Development Dilemma: Security, Prosperity, and a Return to History: "Reassessing the developing world through the lens of Europe's past... http://amzn.to/2xgSNUi Geoff Mulgan: Big Mind: How Collective Intelligence Can Change Our World: "A new field of collective intelligence has emerged in the last few years, prompted by a wave of digital technologies... http://amzn.to/2wBnMXx Slavery and Capitalism Reading List http://www.bradford-delong.com/2017/08/slavery-and-capitalism.html 2017-09-23 Should-Read: Time to start trying to think about what books to assign for Econ 210b next semester... Pseudoerasmus: THE 25 MOST STIMULATING ECONOMIC HISTORY BOOKS SINCE 2000: "Allen, The British Industrial Revolution in Global Perspective..." http://www.bradford-delong.com/2017/09/should-read-time-to-start-trying-to-think-about-what-books-to-assign-for-econ-210b-next-semester-pseudoerasmus.html Reading: The...
Last Wednesday night at Ars Technica LIVE! at Eli's Mile High Club in Oakland—located beneath where the eight-lane Interstate 580 crosses the ten-lane California Highway 24—there were three demands from the People of the Internet Appearing in Meatspace for a return of the Morning Coffee podcast. So why not? Trump's Tariffs: DeLong Morning Coffee Podcast: Why don’t Republican plutocrats, and the senators and representatives they have bought, recognize that plutocrats are not the allies of kleptocrats but rather the prey of kleptocrats? Trump's Tariffs Thnks to Wavelength and the very interesting micro.blog http://help.micro.blog/2018/microcasting/ http://delong.micro.blog/2018/04/15/trumps-tariffs-delong.html Text: http://www.bradford-delong.com/2018/04/trumps-tariffs.html
American Economic History Concepts DRAFT Fair Game for IDs/Short Answers/Multiple Choice/Short Essays 2018-04-16 Version "Fordism" "The Pill" 3/5 clause Abigail Adams Abraham Lincoln Adolf Hitler Affirmative Action Affordable Care Act Aid to Families with Dependent Children Alan Greenspan Alan Turing Alexander Hamilton American Federation of Labor American Telephone and Telegraph Appalachian mountains Appalachian Piedmont Apple Computer Bill Clinton Brown vs. Board of Eduction of Topeka, KS Bubonic Plague Caravel Central Pacific Railroad Chicago River Chicago, IL Christopher Columbus Civil Rights and Voting Rights Acts Civil War Cold War Congress of Industrial Organizations Cuzco DARPA Detroit, MI Donald Trump Dwight D. Eisenhower Emancipation Proclamation End of laissez faire (Keynes) Erie Canal Federal Reserve Ferdinand Magellan First Gilded Age Ford Motor Company Franklin Delano Roosevelt Free Silver Fugitive Slave Act General Motors George W. Bush George Washington Gilded Age (First and Second) Google Great Plains Great Society Haiti Harry S Truman Henry Ford… Henry Kaiser Herbert Hoover Houston, TX IMF Interchangeable Parts… International Business Machines, Inc. Interstate Commerce Commission Interstate Highway System Jim Crow John C. Calhoun John F. Kennedy John Maynard Keynes John von Neumann Josef Stalin Karl Polanyi Korean War Leon Trotsky Lima, Peru Los Angeles, CA Louisiana Purchase Lowell, MA Lyndon Johnson Martin Luther King, Jr. Mass Production Mass Production… Massachusetts Bay Medicare and Medicaid Mexican Cession Microprocessor Microsoft Mississippi-Ohio-Missouri river system Missouri Compromise Model T Montreal NAFTA NASA National Income and Product National Industrial Recovery Act National Labor Relations Board New Deal New Orleans, LA New York Central Railroad...
Last Wednesday night at Ars Technica LIVE! at Eli's Mile High Club in Oakland—located beneath where the eight-lane Interstate 580 crosses the ten-lane California Highway 24—there were three demands from the People of the Internet Appearing in Meatspace for a return of the Morning Coffee podcast. So why not? Joseph Schumpeter’s Liquidationist Errors: DeLong Morning Coffee Podcast: Joseph Schumpeter was wrong in his claim the depressions were things to be suffered rather than cured. But how much smarter Schumpeter was than our modern day austerians!! 8885bba090 The easiest way to create podcasts appears to be to wander around the campus dictating things to Wavelength which then automatically posts them to the very interesting micro.blog: https://delong.micro.blog/2018/04/14/joseph-schumpeters-liquidationist.html Text: http://www.bradford-delong.com/2018/04/joseph-schumpeter-on-liquidationism-hoisted-from-the-archives.html
Prospect Magazine: Back to school: top economists on what their subject needs to learn next: Learn to prevent—we’re out of cure: The crisis and its aftermath showed that the North Atlantic economies could not maintain full employment by following the Keynesian road. The idea that when the private sector sits down the public sector should stand up—that consistent durable prosperity can be achieved by having government step in as a spender of last resort—proved unsustainable. It also showed that full employment could not be maintained by following the monetarist road: the idea that successful regulation could keep finance on a sound footing, or at least a steady enough footing for central banks to manage, also proved unsustainable. Ultimately prosperity is unlikely to be maintained without competent democratic government, and that has proven shaky since the slump. The big question is: what institutional—and perhaps political—changes are necessary to avoid another wild swing? In all likelihood we’ve only a decade to build better institutions of economic management. And we have not yet begun... What other people say: Larry Summers: Get to grips with vicious cycles: The central lesson of 21st century economic experience is that modern economies are not self-equilibrating systems. Indeed, modern economies are often dominated by positive feedback effects that destabilise. Margin calls, bank runs, portfolio insurance, option hedging all cause more selling of assets as their values go down. When selling causes lower prices, which cause more selling, the market mechanism is in trouble. We...
Project Syndicate: Trump’s Tax on America: After a year of serving as a useful idiot for congressional Republicans and their wealthy donors to push through tax cuts and deregulation, US President Donald Trump is now following through on his protectionist promises. Sooner or later, Republicans might realize that inept kleptocracy is not the best form of government after all: "2017 was the best year for conservatives in the 30 years that I’ve been here. The best year. On all fronts". So said Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY). "This has turned out to be a very solid, conservative, right of center, pro-business administration. And we’re seeing the results of it." The same sentiments have been echoed over and over again by Republican donors over their shrimp hors d'oevres: the rollback of environmental regulations, and tax cuts for the rich. What is not to like? That Donald Trump and his family are would-be kleptocrats means that they little like the government taking what they want to be their wealth, and so are allies of all those who think America's big problem is that the distribution of income and wealth is not unequal enough. That the Donald Trump administration is incompetent—the tax cut bill was the worst drafted bill anybody can remember seeing—is not a drawback, for incompetence creates opportunities for lawyers to further enlarge loopholes. 2017 was, in the...
Crisis, Rinse, Repeat: Key economic data from the periods following the 1929 stock-market crash and the 2007-2008 financial crisis suggest that the current recovery has been unnecessarily anemic. If policymakers refuse to heed the lessons of the New Deal era, then the next crisis is destined to be as prolonged as the last. When the economic historians of the late 21st-century compare the Great Recession that started in 2007 with the Great Depression that started in 1929, they will write two things: They will write that the initial policy response to the crises by the Federal Reserve and the Treasury was first rate in 2007 and after but fifth rate in 1929 after—what could have been a post-2007 repeat of the Great Depression in terms of the crash in production and employment was instead moderated to a painful episode. But they will also write that while the post-business cycle trough policy response of President Franklin Roosevelt, the Congress is elected by American voters in the Federal Reserve was if not first at least second rate and laid the foundations for rapid recovery and satisfactory equitable growth; the post-business cycle trough policy response of President Barack Obama’s, the Congresses elected by American voters, and the Federal Reserve was at best third rate and did not lay foundations for rapid recovery or satisfactory equitable growth. United States national income and national...